Quiet, then crowded

Dev posts the clinic’s Monday case count on the staff fridge. The number is low. The following Monday, it is a little higher. Nothing about either week forces an obvious response. By Thursday, patients are standing in the aisle.

The early numbers did not look urgent because the visible change was small. If the count was doubling, however, most of the eventual pressure arrived after those apparently quiet weeks.

That does not mean every increase is exponential. Counts can rise in fixed steps, level off, or be distorted by a change in reporting. The responsible response is to keep a short history, compare the rate of change, and decide what evidence would trigger action.

Waiting until the room is visibly overwhelmed removes most of the time available to respond. The useful decision is made earlier, while the numbers still allow choices.

The final page asks for a small practice the clinic can use to make that earlier decision.