{
  "schema": "future-forge.capability-trend/v1",
  "id": "ai-altman-cost-given-level",
  "techId": "ai",
  "name": "How fast a given AI gets cheaper",
  "summary": "Using an AI model is billed by how much text it reads and writes. Sam Altman, who runs OpenAI, wrote in February 2025 that the cost of a given level of intelligence falls about ten times every year. His example: talking to a GPT-4-class model in early 2023 versus a GPT-4o-class model in mid-2024, which he said was about 150 times cheaper. This chart follows that claim. It is one person\u2019s named observation, not a government price index. Official list prices for the same product family moved less than 150 times.",
  "capability": "Cost to use last year\u2019s level of intelligence",
  "unit": "price compared with mid-2024",
  "compounding": {
    "kind": "cagr",
    "annualRate": -0.9
  },
  "anchor": {
    "date": "2023-03-01",
    "value": 150
  },
  "domain": {
    "start": "2022",
    "end": "2030"
  },
  "milestones": [
    {
      "id": "altman-2023",
      "label": "GPT-4-era token price (Altman 150\u00d7 pair)",
      "date": "2023-03",
      "value": 150,
      "status": "reached"
    },
    {
      "id": "altman-2024",
      "label": "GPT-4o mid-2024 = 1 on his pair",
      "date": "2024-05",
      "value": 1,
      "status": "reached"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Sam Altman \u2014 Three Observations (9 Feb 2025)",
      "url": "https://blog.samaltman.com/three-observations"
    }
  ]
}